What Is Ailing Ukraine?

Dear Balajee,

When one has the largest economy in the world and enviable military power, the ambition to be the only superpower in the world is what the US is aspiriing for, especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union. There is no dispute about it. Moreover, the world leaders have been looking up to the US to take leadership since the world war started. I agree unsolicited advice to the countries can definitely be avoided. Dollar has become the world currency and it will take years before anyone can think of replacing it with another even though many attempts have been made so far.

Every country has its own aspirations. The Indian government has been aspiring to be part of the Security Council with Veto power for many years and has been actively canvasing for this for many years. Do they have a right to aspire for it? Of course, Yes. At some point, the Prime Minister Narendar Modi said that he would make India so strong and a powerful economy and make the Americans line up in the Indian consulate to gain entry into India. Will that happen? Yes, anything can happen, if the citizens put their mind into making it into a most powerful nation and take pride in it. There is a perception created by India that Russian President Putin would only listen to the Prime Minister of India and no one else. Can Modi request Putin to stop this reckless war that kills so many innocent people?

I agree no country has a right to preach about human rights violations as it happens in every country when in some countries it is a problem of highest order crushing a particular religious or category of people. Every country has its own problems. However, sometimes, other countries do get involved because the citizens of the countries hurting migrate to other countries or demonstrate in front of the government offices to help. When so many immigrants were coming into India from East Pakistan, can India remain silent considering that it is an internal problem of Pakistan? When Tamilians were treated as second class citizens in Sri Lanka, did India remain silent or did they send an India Peace Keeping Force after executing a formal agreement with Sri Lanka? Did India wait until all their internal problems are resolved before getting involved in any of these problems? Sri Lanka was complaining that Tamilnadu is harboring the terrrorists in their territory for a long time. I think the generic principles one should look at are a) a government is elected by the common people, b) the government works for the well-being of its citizens, c) No minority is persecuted and the practice of secularism is promoted, d) No military aggression by any country without any provocation, e) the laws of the land are applied across equally to all the citizens, f) there is a good set of laws and justice system, g) Represetative of the people are working closely with the government in power for the well-being of the citizens and so on.

In any strategic partnership, no matter how big a country is always looking for its self interest. The good think is countries and its leaders are able to communicate their differences with certain countries (however big they are) while they are unable to do so with certain other countries. Every country's foreign policies are changing regularly based on the situation existing at that time. The US government has moved away from remaining blind eye to the aggression by Pakistan and China to solidly declaring India as a strategic partner for decades now. Saudi Arabia used to be the closes ally in the Middleeast with miltiary security provided by America for many years now turns out to be a bitter enemy due to the murder of an independent journalist. China which was considered arch rival of the US suddenly became a friend when Richard Nixon made that trip to China. Even Soviet Union was part of allies in the WW.

 

Putin is facing a crisis in Ukraine now as withdrawal is not an option as it would be a direct annihilation of his pride. Continuing the traditional war only is suicidal as many Russian soldiers are losing life despite destruction of the cities in Ukraine. Ukrainians are giving a good fight thanks to uninterrupted supply of arms and amminitions coming from West and neighboring Eastern corridor of nations. Russia keeps threatening that West will face severe consequences if they continue supplying arms but nothing is stopping their uninterrupted supply of arms and ammunitions. The Russians are now taken the card of nuclear threat which is a major mistake. Now, China who has been silent spectator of the war in Ukraine now is telling Russia that the nuclear option can not be used. The Chinese government is now taking a strong position, financial, military and economic support will not be given by China if that option is used by Russia. With that among the big five, only Russia is alone.

Germany, Poland and Bulgaria now have categorically declared they are ready to participate in the sanction against Russia and ready to find other sources for their energy and they didn't bother about Russian threat to stop supply of oil. Hopefully, the Indian foreign policy will change soon as well as otherwise, they will stand alone with Russia and other friendly countries to Russia. Even Israel raised strong objection for Lebrov's claim that Hitler has Jewish ancestors. 22% inflation, the cost of war in Ukraine, seizure of assets overseas, sanctions against Russia are all hurting them so badly. Russians are now threatening to pull out of their commitment towards international space station.

There is no question that Russians have the highest number of nuclear arsenals in the world as they pulled out of non-proliferation treaty while Trump was the President. There are so many nuclear capable countries in the world now and many are not even signatory to the non-proliferation treaty. At least a few countries have excellent air-defence system including how to intercept such mishaps in the space. No one wants world war III and if any country were to initiate one, they would be subdued in no time. History will repeat itself that those who initiate a WW will face the consequences of their actions in real time. WWIII, if it happens, will not be fought traditionally as it was fought in 20th century.

 

Putin will not pull the nuclear card. He is backed into a corner and the humiliations keep piling up. They are saber-rattling but their military shortcomings have been exposed for all to see. The emperor’s clothes are nothing but a thin film of oil.
The more likely scenario is that he will use his May 9 address to make a bombastic speech about achieving what they had set out to do regardless of the truth, and quietly either settle into a long-term grind or let things peter out. After the Bucha atrocities they have lost all credibility even among Ukrainians who may have initially sympathetic to the cause.