General question : I have only read and heard stories about 2008 recession and in my understanding that was different than what covid has brought upon us now . Going by the cycle of recession there were talks that we would be stepping into one in this year but perhaps covid had made the progression faster and much severe . Unlike 2008, there would be businesses reopening once we are past the pandemic which would lead to people back at work , I assume . how different is this recession going to be than the previous one ? how long you think it would last ? And lastly how far should we be negotiating while out in the market for job search ?
Hard to tell. After COVID, (if there is an after soon) there is election this year. That creates more speculation, and market is always driven by speculations and thereby uncertainties. So IMO, it could be anywhere from a minimum of 6 months. But like you said, when the COVID cases plateaus, businesses will reopen, and many businesses will need more work force to catch up, some will be closed forever, but mostly I think economy will bounce back with all the stimuli Feds are offering. However, it might take sometime to bounce back to where it was before the pandemic. Most Hiring should be back on track once businesses reopen and international travel bans lift. But that still is at least 3-4 months away where I live.
Recession was slowly picking up in early 2020 and Covid added fuel to it . Corporates are acting or balancing to show solitude to the employees . But, cant restrain the model for long. It depends on the covid-19 after effects. 1. If every thing control by July end (which is unlikely), impact is mild to average depends on the sectors . We are going to loose only one quarter profits and can be managed . 2. If it continues till year end(most probably), some sectors will vanish . ex : Hospitality, Restaurants and Travel , tourisam etc. which will take 2-3 yrs to cover the losses. 3. Govts are spending money like water and they will extract all these expenses through taxes. So, covid19 tax will be there for next 3 yrs. The life after Covid-19 is not going to be normal. No frequent visits to malls or movies etc. Which impact respective sectors. Health insurance premiums will increase by 5-20% and where as salary cuts will be 20-30% in case if they dont layoff. Travel sectors covering up the losses by laying off. Harley davidson laid of some work force across the globe. Its difficult to predict. definitely not going to be normal.
IMO, Somethings and dispositions, will change permanently. Like people will like to eat in more, and avoid crowded places and cruise ships will be avoided like plague. This will continue for atleast 5 years. Global power distribution will change. China will not be sole 'manufacturer'. But China will become the owner of branded companies during this time. Coming to US: after the economy opens, there will layoffs and lots of it. But there will be jobs too; so good time switch jobs. Economy will not pickup real soon. Many of the small businesses will go under. There is 'payroll protection' offered, but still some shops will close. Big giant companies, will be okay and will continue to run okay after this time. It should take few years to comeback to the level of economy from last year.
Definitely this is different. In 2008, real estate fell down really bad in US. Not this time. But this impending recession is equally bad because it has hit all industries, all countries as well, not just USA. So it looks like it's going to be pretty rough for an year at least. I can see the tension in my work, people are leaving no effort to make others look bad. It is getting personal day by day. The stock market has been hit as well. This one will be hitting middle class from a different angle but it is no less painful or stressful.
