War - Analysis Of It's How & Why.

War - Analysis of it's
How & Why
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An iranian war ship after participating in exercise in vishakpatinam ocean waters was sunk yesyerday (4/5th March night ) by an American submarine and sos from sinking ship heard by Sri Lanka that rescued thirty and odd soldiers handover 80 bodies . I read this news through welled up eyes that prompted to pour out my brooding.

While battle is small scale to achieve few immediate gains like territory, wealth of a state and grab the queens and princess of other nation. Cleopatra Alexander models and many more comes to mind.
But war is to completely destroy another nation of its wealth and people. While it is in bloodstream of some nationals, many wars take its root only in minds. Neither the Vatican nor other monks of third world or developed world can prevent wars.
I consider - The war on Iran is a fruitless exercise . Putin believes not in Trump and he is confident that Iran has no stockpile of weapon grade ENRICHED Uranium. America and USA would never war against each other but they are eager some other nations fight themselves are in collaboration with them. In this process one finds taxpayers money lavishly wasted by Russia and US and lives of other fighting small nations turn miserable.

Let us look at the present war scenario.
An article by prof. Jiang Xueqin
in X foreseen the scenario of present war in 2024 itself ( copied below)

what is happening now: Iran-Gulf-USA:

Professor JX — the man who called Trump’s return in May 2024 and predicted the exact US-Israel strike on Iran over a year before it happened, just dropped Game Theory #9.

And what he says about the petrodollar is the most important macro call of 2026.

The Structural Fragility (Geography is Destiny)
The GCC (GCC countries refer to the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates ).
Bahrain, UAE/Dubai-Abu Dhabi, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia) are artificial petro-states built on sand.

- 80 % of all food is imported
- 60 % of all fresh water comes from energy-intensive desalination plants
- Flat, open desert terrain, zero natural cover
- 90 %+ expats in Dubai, zero domestic fighting spirit
- Entire model depends on selling oil exclusively in USD and recycling trillions back into US assets.

Iran, by contrast, is a mountainous fortress with strategic depth, a population that has survived decades of sanctions, and a Shia martyrdom culture that turns death into fuel.

Professor Jiang pulls up the maps: Strait of Hormuz (33 km wide, 20 % of global oil ships pass through this channel), water-stress charts (UAE & Bahrain literally off the scale), ethnic/religious overlays. “These countries should not exist in their current form.

They only do because America protects them. That protection is now being tested by $40,000 drones.”

The Asymmetric Warfare Machine:
Iran is not matching US firepower. It is bankrupting it.
- Shahed drones: $35k–$50k each, 500 produced per day, estimated 80,000 stockpile
- Target list: desalination plants, oil terminals, power grids, airports, US bases
- US/Israeli response: $1–3 million Patriot/THAAD missiles (often 2–3 needed per drone)
- “That’s kind of silly,” Jiang says with his trademark dry laugh.

One drone can knock out a desalination plant serving millions. A few hits on Jebel Ali or Ras Tanura and the revenue + water + electricity triple crisis hits simultaneously.

Country-by-Country Collapse Sequence
1. Bahrain — First to Fall (in Weeks, Not Months)
- 50–60 % Shia population ruled by Sunni monarchy seen as US/Saudi puppet
- Home of US 5th Fleet naval base, already under direct missile/drone barrage
- Khamenei’s martyrdom + school strike = religious obligation for jihad .

Jiang’s prediction: Shia uprising + Iranian support → monarchy flees or is overthrown. Loss of 5th Fleet = catastrophic strategic defeat for America.

2. Dubai / UAE — Glamour Model Dies Overnight
- 90 %+ expats, $200k–$250k charter flights already happening
- Airport shutdowns, Burj Al Arab hit, luxury projects exposed
Jiang’s exact words: “Dubai as a city in the long term — it is dead. You’re a wealthy Westerner or Asian. You’re not coming back to a place that can be attacked any time by Iranians.”

3. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, The Slow-Motion Implosion
- Same vulnerabilities on larger scale
- Shia minorities in eastern Saudi oil fields
- Massive desalination complexes, food import dependence
- When water runs out and oil money stops flowing, the social contract (subsidies, no taxes) breaks

The Game-Theory Endgame
This is classic asymmetric repeated game with massive differences in:
- Pain tolerance: Iran fights to the death (jihad + martyrdom). GCC elites have private jets and Swiss accounts — they run.
- Credible commitment: Iran’s command is now decentralized and religiously motivated. GCC’s loyalty is purely transactional.
- Cost curve: Iran spends $40k, US spends millions per response. Iran can do this forever. GCC cannot.

When the monarchies crack (and Jiang says they will), petrodollar recycling stops cold.
No more Gulf trillions buying US Treasuries, US stocks, US real estate, US tech.
Oil sales instantly diversify into Yuan, Rupee, gold, or BRICS currencies.
The “exorbitant privilege” that let America run endless deficits since 1973–74 vanishes.
Final End-State for the GCC
- Monarchies either collapse, flee into exile, or become Iranian-aligned vassal states
- Region fragments into water wars and proxy chaos
- “Pax Islamica” under Iranian leadership (Shia-led jihad narrative) replaces US-backed order
- The entire post-1971 American financial architecture loses its Gulf pillar:
Jiang has been saying this exact sequence since 2024. Today he is simply documenting it in real time.
For macro liquidity warriors:
This is the regime change event.
Structural dollar demand collapse → yield spike → liquidity crunch → acceleration of de-dollarization
The GCC isn’t being conquered by armies.
It is being dismantled by cheap drones, water scarcity, religious fervor, and the unforgiving math of game theory.

The lights are going out in Manama.
The runway lights are shutting off in Dubai.
And the petrodollar is dying with them.
________________________
And the aftermath of ongoing war for India - Govt yesterday announced they have stock of oil petro diesel that would last for 6 weeks. When the war continues as between Russia & Ukraine and US/Israel vs Iran beyond a month, I shudder to think of economies of the world coming to a grinding halt. When no oil petrol diesel burnt there is no pollution, no industrial chimney emission and so air going to be pure and cool. The only gainer is the Nature and climate control !
God Bless All

 

Stock of Indian oil, vehicle fuels and CNG/LPG reserve reported in the Hindu plummeted to 25 days today from 6 weeks yesterday!

In some quarters, it is also felt that war under pretext of iran possessing weapon grade enrichment of uranium making plants and nuclear bombs is a ploy to cover up alleged nasty activities revealed by million pages from Epstein files.

It is true since a week, world attention diverted from late Epstein model of trade talks using child trafficking and prostitution at beck and call for celebrities all over the world!

 

Hi thank you for the mage quote. Indeed rich get enriched and poor get impoverished. I wanted your quote in Hindi to appear in English .
yunashapatava
Serbian saying:
“In war the politicians give ammunition, the rich give the food and the poor give their children.
When the war is over the politicians get back the leftover ammunition, the rich grow more food and the poor search for the graves of their children.”

 

Stop looking for more information and start acting on the information you already have. Get your dopamine from action - A quote from Brilliant blogist @Srama
A very different point of view and perspective about on going war between Iran vs Israel &USA.

February 28, 2026. 4am.
The bombs were already in the air.
Somewhere, two phones did not ring.
Think about that.
Russia had S-400 systems inside Iran. The largest US military buildup since Iraq 2003.
Two carrier strike groups.

Visible to every satellite for weeks.

India had Chabahar Port. India had deep investments inside Iran. India had direct diplomatic access to Tehran. Some people saw everything coming. And somewhere, a decision was made.

Not to act. Not to call.

Follow the economy now.
Russia wins 1:
Oil jumps 10% in 48 hours.
Every dollar above $65 Brent = billions into Moscow.
Russia wins 2:
Each Tomahawk fired at Tehran takes 2 years to replace.
Fewer Tomahawks = fewer weapons reaching Ukraine.
Russia wins 3:
Patriot missiles defending Riyadh cannot defend Kharkiv.
Ukraine bleeds. Putin gains leverage.
Russia wins 4:
$50 billion US defence supplemental budget announced.
American arsenal depleting.
Russian frontline quietly breathing.
Zero Russian bullets fired.
Maximum Russian gain extracted.
That is not luck.
That is architecture.

Now India.
Modi saw the same chessboard.
Said nothing publicly.
Moved everything privately.
India Gains 1:
Russian crude discount deepens immediately.
India buys at prices no other nation can access.
India Gains 2:
Gulf states are terrified.
They need a non-threatening diplomatic bridge.
300 million Indian diaspora across the Gulf.
India is that Bridge.
India Gains 3:
America needs India away from China's orbit.
That need means technology transfers, trade concessions,
defence partnerships worth hundreds of billions.
India Gains 4:
China's BRI corridor through Iran is rubble. India's biggest rival just lost, its entire Middle East architecture overnight. India's IMEC
India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor
sees new light.
India gains 5:
Every post-war reconstruction table,
needs one neutral trusted voice.
India Modiji is now that voice.
India – Russia needs De-dollarisation to accelerate.
Zero bullets.
Zero sides taken.
Maximum optionality retained.
Now the question nobody is asking loudly.
Putin and Modi have met 14 times in 3 years.
They have energy agreements.
Defence agreements.
Intelligence relationships most analyst underestimate.
So, when the largest Middle East operation in two decades was being planned... Why did certain phones not ring in Tehran? Was it oversight? These are not men who overlook things.
I will leave that with you.
If someone is still dreaming about the Iran-Russia-China axis,
they are not just wrong. They do not understand geopolitics.
Alliances are written in ink.
Interests are written in stone.
Russia is counting revenues.
India is at every table that matters.
And somewhere, two leaders are watching the world - reorganise itself exactly as calculated.
Were they aware?
Did they know?
Why the silence?
You already know the answer.
You just needed someone to say it out loud. More perspectives from
https://x.com/i/status/2029870606435660138