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Derail Bharat Plans Afoot.

Discussion in 'Snippets of Life (Non-Fiction)' started by Thyagarajan, Feb 25, 2023.

  1. Thyagarajan

    Thyagarajan IL Hall of Fame

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    Bharat since couple of months seen in her North brewing up with clashes, ruckus and anti modi actions and hidenburgs. When all these activities summed up, it conjures upto one thing. A couple of nations are instrumental for the eruptions in India, snowballing into huge killings and damages and unwanted or pseudo issues taking public time. An analyst is of the view that a foreign nation is not truly happy about speedy economic progress of India and seeks change of Modi GOVT. The reasons are not far to seek.
    It is estimated that there is a shortage of 600,000 barrels of diesel per day in Europe right now. And this number will only increase over the course of this year because most forms of transport run on diesel.
    Surprisingly, the major supplier to plug this gap will be India as we will be meeting nearly 60% of this diesel demand thanks to our huge refining capacity.

    India is emerging as the upstream refinery destination of Russian crude oil which is then refined and exported to Europe
    This is a huge game-changer in geopolitics as India will move up from Consumer to Producer.
    Currently, India is buying 1,700,000 million barrels of Russian oil every day at roughly $47 per barrel. This means that the potential export revenues is to the tune of $70 billion this year.
    A big Western nation simply cannot tolerate this rise of India in the energy geo-economics especially when it is built on a partnership with Russia. This is why all these attacks on our country are happening. They have moved beyond "human rights" and "religious freedom" to wild documentaries and even attacking Indian businesses.
    The other reason for that big nation to get upset is that India is securing its sea route through the 'Necklace of Diamonds' bases which can be used for global supply chain as well as naval military purposes.
    But what threatens the particular nation the most is the next step where India is likely to join other BRICS nations to implement the 'mBridge' platform for international hydrocarbon trade. That will be the death knell for its Dollar and enormous privilege that her economy enjoys due to the hegemony of the Dollar.
    The recent direct trades between countries without that Dollar is already a warning shot to her. The idea of moving international trade away from her Dollar is spreading fast. Their chairmanship of the Oil, Arms and Pharma mafia is tumbling like a pack of cards.
    The BBC documentary and the Adani Issue are only a couple of such attempts to derail India.
    There will be more to come.
     
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  2. MalStrom

    MalStrom IL Hall of Fame

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    Who might this mystery nation be?
     
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  3. Thyagarajan

    Thyagarajan IL Hall of Fame

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  4. HariLakhera

    HariLakhera Finest Post Winner

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    It is not that simple. It is not the first time that Hinderberg has come up with such reports. They did it in the past and will do it in the future. They are in the business of making money. They did not in the very country where they are incorporated. If it was not against the USA, how can it be against India?
    There will always be for and against views. It is for the country concerned to take note and make corrections where ever needed.
     
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  5. Thyagarajan

    Thyagarajan IL Hall of Fame

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    Thank you sir. H report flattened Adani and market sentiments found bottom less pit. Major investments shift to Mf but where mfs would invest. Cascading effect in dalal street market & economy in particular caused by external sources outside India put investors in doldrums.
     
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  6. HariLakhera

    HariLakhera Finest Post Winner

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    This is not the first time. Before this, there was Harshad Mehta and Ketan Parekh. Ketan Parekh is an investor in Adani.
    The question is what SEBI and other watchdogs were doing and what the present Government is doing.
    Adani will not go to dogs, he will survive and in any case, he will remain rich, if not the richest. I think the worst is over but he may find it difficult to grow as in the past. He will continue getting government support. Nothing will change, whosoever comes in power.
    As for those dealing in shares, they know the risks involved.
     
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  7. Viswamitra

    Viswamitra IL Hall of Fame

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    Dear Thyagarajan Sir,

    India's rise in the world is admirable and every Indian and even former Indian will be proud of this rise in the status. There is no question.

    However, the USA's downfall can't be predicted that easily with these moves in the BRICS and even if Saudi Arabia joins BRICS. There are so much of inter-dependency among the countries including a strategic partnership between India and the United States. The US is still dominant in science and technology, R & D investments, educational institutions, oil-reserves, unexplored oil in Alaska and Florida, enviable power supply, outstanding infrastructure, so forth and so on. Despite the select countries not depending on the US, many more or relying on the US military power for security. The economies of the UK, France, Germany, Japan, Australia and the United States combined is formidably higher when compared to the BRICS nations economy. NATO relies mostly on American funding to defend the countries in Europe. It is difficult to erase the dominance gained by the US after WWII.

    The US dollar value is not necessarily dependent upon its status as world currency but on several other factors such as annual growth of the economy, skillset of the work force, relationship with advanced economies, etc. It will be many more years before the alternate currency option works well for BRICS nations.

    Already, many countries in Eastern Europe and APAC region are becoming a hub for software development services at a competitive rates. I have personally studied that two decades ago as otherwise, Indian service industry growth would have been a lot higher than what it is today. As late as last year, the US is the second largest FDI investor as Singapore is #1. May be, that is one reason why PM Modi is welcoming investments in other industries to make India a manufacturing hub just like China.

    Like any other country, the US is not fault free and they have made many strategic errors such as fighting wrong wars, taking responsibility to resolve issues of Europe without proper contribution from them, staying in Afghanistan and Iraq longer than needed, standing against India for a long time supporting China and Pakistan (poor foreign policy), rebuilding nations after WWII and other wars without any reciprocative benefits for the USA, etc.

    India has a lot of challenges in its neighborhood which would involve additional spending by India. When Pakistan and Sri Lanka are in dire economic collapse, India will have much more challenges in their neighborhood. China is entering Sri Lankan soil in a big way just like what they did in Africa. With all these facts, still, I am pleased with India's progress and there is a lot more to do. The current Foreign Minister of India is remarkable and provides great standing for India in a global space. India is a natural partner in many ways as it had no global expansion ambitions and confined to only its own growth. Most importantly, it has a lot of young manpower, if channeled properly, can result in remarkable further growth. They have made remarkable improvement in science and technology, infrastrucutre building, defense capabilities, etc. Poverty removal is progressing well but corruption is still rampant in every entry level offices such as sub-registrar's offices, automobile licensing, income-tax, excise and customs, Tahsildar's office and many more. Elections though democratic, many people are bribed to vote for specific wealthy parties. This system should be eradicated with more strigent laws and more by educating the common public about the danger of accepting money for vote.
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2023
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  8. Thyagarajan

    Thyagarajan IL Hall of Fame

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    Thanks sir. It is a holistic view & I tend to agree with it. In this context I just recd a note from my indian thinker-friend which I copy here:
    How the Chaiwala Economics has converted India into a Global Currency.
    India launched its international Rupee ambitions on July 13, 2022. And in a matter of less than 9 months our country has become a global currency.
    Don’t believe me? Read on.
    Our UPI is approved in ~18 countries and with 12 countries at MOU stage. Sooner than later 30 countries will be be exchanging currency with India bypassing the US Dollar.
    34 countries have already agreed to trading in the INR. As of yesterday, hold your breathe,
    another 64 countries, including Italy & Germany, have evinced interest in Rupee trading. In effect they will be bypassing the US Dollar.
    The moment 50 odd countries start trading in the INR, IMF will perforce have to declare the INR a global currency.
    Now just think which are our major currency import items - Oil, Gold, Defence and electronic hardware.
    India has already made Russia its largest oil source destination and this trade is happening in Rupee.
    Now Saudi Arabia is not happy that it is losing market share to the Russians. Also they cannot antagonise the US. So in order to not engage the wrath of America, Saudi is hoping that through the GCC it can get into an FTA with India so that oil payments can be made in the INR.
    Recently UAE was in the news as India is buying 200t gold from them. Yea you guessed right - Rupee trading.
    Don’t forget that UAE is our third largest trading partner. And when a large part of our EXIM trade happens in the INR, obviously it is going to validate the importance
    of the INR. As an added bonus Russia is happy accepting payments for oil in INR as well as in UAE Dirhams.
    For defence we have got the offset clause for local manufacturing. This will result in 60-65% defence spending. And we are already taking rapid strides to be Atmanirbhar.
    When our four largest import items are going to be based in the local currency, automatically this will boost our foreign currency reserves.
    Add to this the fact that FDI in the last 18 months has topped USD 532 bn (or 50% of our FDI since 1947).
    will perforce have to trade via local currency. With all these countries invoicing in INR, they will obviously increase trade with India and catapult our exports.
    So within a short time, India has become a reserve currency and a store of value along with the US, Euro and Gold.
    It is no wonder that the TIME magazine has called the Indian Rupee the future Dollar.
    Soon all countries will have to keep the INR in their portfolio of global currencies.
    The irony is that China, a USD 18tr economy has not been able to achieve this status. (They claim that the yuan is now accepted in 2 countries, but while keeping their names secret)
    So when are you converting all your Dollars to Rupees. De-Dollarisation is a fast emerging trend.
    . ..........
    Believe me US Dollar is going to fall BIG time with in 9 to 10 months. How am I so sure & Confident .?? Because of TWO Reasons... 1) Hitherto most countries were having HUGE Reserves of Dollar. Many countries are already DUMPING Dollar Reserves in favour of Gold, Yuan- Ringit, & Rupee, Dhirham & Saudi Riaal.
    2) The Dollar denominated US Bonds are being SOLD away & DUMPED in huge amounts, & big time..
     
  9. Viswamitra

    Viswamitra IL Hall of Fame

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    [​IMG]

    Is that reflected in the US currency dropping its value and Indian Rupee appreciating against Dollar? How much of value Indian Rupee lost against the US dollars in the last year? (9.5% of its value against Dollar) (Please see the graph above). Why RBI is involving itself to arrest a free fall of Indian Rupees? When is Rupee becoming fully convertible (both current account and capital account conversion), if India is confident of its currency? Can someone walk into a Bank and pay $1 million equivalent rupees and convert it into dollars? If dollar is having a free fall, why not India make its currency a fully convertible (floating) currency? Why there are so much restrictions and regulations by RBI? No matter how many countries are enrolled for Rupee trading, eventually, the transaction value will determine the strength of the currency. China tried its best to make Yuan the currency for Asia but so far it has failed despite being the second largest economy in the world.

    Where is the evidence for US Bonds dumping that is happening as projected here?
    Based on January 2023 statistics published, $7.2 Trillion dollars worth of bonds are held by foreign countries including Japan, China, United Kingdom, Belgium, Luxumberg, Cayman Islands, Switzerland, Ireland, Canada, Brazil, Taiwan, India, and France. During pandemic, the investment in the US treasury bonds increased substantially. Even if countries pull out their investment in treasury bonds, one should understand that more than 70% of the total treasure bonds are held by local financial players within the United States and only 30% is held by foreign countries. The US has its own gold reserves as well as untapped emergency oil reserve that is specifically reserved only for emergencies. Besides, it has natural resources of oil not yet explored in Florida coast and Alaska. As you know, the US also is a major crude oil exporter.

    What is the total value of transactions that are happening in Rupees as opposed to the US dollar as of February-March 2023? If it is growing, is it sustainable? Instead of publishing a wish list, it is best if there is a comparitive economics produced to back such claims such as 'dedollarization has begun'. it is easy for me to convert all my US dollars wealth into Indian Rupees even today (as US currency is a floating currency) but it would be difficult to change all my Indian Rupee wealth into the US dollars. "Believe me" statements are meaningless unless they are backed up by statistics. There is a lot more work to be done by India before Indian Rupee becomes a world currency. Anyone who understands economics will know this.

    I welcome India becoming a powerful nation in military strength, developed nation economically and join the Security Council. It makes me feel happy but I don't like to trust a wish list unless it is backed by a strong data of growth and development. Growth agenda is different from actual growth.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2023
  10. Viswamitra

    Viswamitra IL Hall of Fame

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    The US Gold reserve alone is 8,133 metric tons (the world's largest gold reserve) and I forgot to mention this in my earlier post. This is as much gold held by major gold-holding countries combined (Germany, Italy, and France).
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2023

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