After This And Therefore Because Of This

Causes are being manipulated to fit outcomes. They weren’t causes at all, merely things that happened before the defeat. The ancient Romans had an ironic phrase for this terrible logic –  “post hoc, ergo proper hoc”, meaning “after this, therefore because of this”.”

The human mind is remarkably skilled at creating narratives, allowing us to quickly explain events in ways that seem obvious in hindsight. However, we often overlook that, had the outcome been different — like the election results, cricket player selection, market trends — we were likely to offer an entirely different set of reasons to justify that result as well. Indeed, everything appears obvious once we know how things have panned out.

Very often in families such topics arise when a girl is rejected after 'GIRL VIEWING CEREMONY'.
If a dark girl is approved they will say 'karuppu oru azhagu. kaanthal oru ruchi" ( black is a special beauty.Too much roasted is a special taste "
If she is not selected we would say that some better or superior offers are in store.

To put it in a rather straightforward way: There is a market for lies or putting on a pretence, and it’s all around us. In April- May 2019, a panel on a TV channel was analyzing electoral trends of the Lok Sabha election. By the day of the final counting, this panel of so-called ‘experts’ were sure that the Bhartiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance would not win as many seats as they had in 2014. As the results started coming out, it became clear that the BJP-led NDA would win more Lok Sabha seats than they had in 2014. Basically, the analysis and the predictions of the panel had turned out to be all wrong. But that didn’t turn out to be a problem. The same panel that was offering reasons for why the BJP wouldn’t cross the 2014 number started offering reasons on why the BJP had won as many seats as it had. No one batted an eyelid.

The funny thing is that something like this happened all over again in the 2024 Lok Sabha election as well. Many ‘experts’ built a mahaul for the BJP crossing 400 seats in the Lok Sabha, with the slogan abki baar char sau paar. Things perhaps turned out in a way where they started believing in their rhetoric.

Nonetheless, when the results started coming out on 4 June, it became clear that the BJP wasn’t going to win as many seats as it had in 2019. And as soon as this became clear, the experts quickly moved towards offering reasons for why the BJP hadn’t done as well as it was expected to. Well, if the reasons were so clear in their heads, why weren’t they offered before the results came out? That is a question well worth asking. Or is it, “post hoc, ergo proper hoc”. This played out again in the recently concluded Haryana assembly election too.

So, what’s happening here? In cricket. In politics, and even in financial markets, there is a huge market for instant analysis or quick explanations. Why is there a demand for quick explanations? When something occurs, people instinctively seek a reason—a story, an explanation, a cause. This mental drive compels us to find answers, accurate or otherwise.

Also, stories make things, as they stand, more digestible for the human mind. Whenever something happens, expected or unexpected, there is always a reason being offered for it. A cause is proposed to make you swallow the news and make matters more concrete. After a candidate’s defeat in an election, you will be supplied with the “cause” of the voters’ disgruntlement. Any conceivable cause can do.

Even when a patient is severely ill, we have apt reasons for his recovery as well as death. " It is good that God has taken him without much suffering" if he dies ,or " he is lucky to see the weddings of grand children" if he survives.
We have got sufficient consolations for a failure in exam or not being selected in an interview seeing that better times are there

Basically, there is a large set of people who are ready to be lied to because there is only so much that a human brain can comprehend. There is another set of people who are ready to lie and make money from this and find meaning in what they are doing with their lies.

In fact, sometimes they may not even know that they are in the business of lying. Also, real explanations are not always easy to offer, especially for a system as complex as an election. The same stands true for their audience. Many do not really realise that they want to be lied to.

There are three ways to get paid to write: “Lie to people who want to be lied to, and you’ll get rich.
Tell the truth to those who want the truth, and you’ll make a living.
Tell the truth to those who want to be lied to, and you’ll go broke.”


"Post hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin: 'after this, therefore because of this') is an informal fallacy that states "Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X." It is a fallacy in which an event is presumed to have been caused by a closely preceding event merely on the grounds of temporal ..."

A popular expression in Tamizh is "Kaakkai utkaara panam pazham vizha..."

One cannot conclude that some thing has followed some event and therefore what followed is the result of what preceded. One has to establish the causative factor.

Whether it is lie or not, it is sure that the loser gets dejected and he needs consolation.

A winner,even by a few points is a winner.Then also we will say" win is a win though the margin

is a single mark or a few votes.

Winners get encouraged, Failures are consoled and goad for retrial and it is a tamasha for the witness.
போற்றுவார் போற்றட்டும்
புழுதி வாரித் தூற்றுபவர்
தூற்றட்டும்.
தொடர்ந்து செல்வேன் ஏற்றதொரு
கருத்தை எனதுள்ளம் என்றால் எடுத்துரைப்பேன்.
எவர்வரினும் நில்லேன்.!
அஞ்சேன்.!
- கவியரசர் கண்ணதாசன்.
( Let anybody pay tribute; Let anybody condemn;
If an idea suits my conscience,I will dare to push it")
( KANNADASAN)

JAYASALA 42

 

Dear Thyagarajan Sir,
Thank you very much for the response. You have clearly explained

the role of media and newspaper and how they publish the news first and makes the news

happen.That is how gossiping revolves around.
THANK you. JAYAALA 42

 

Dear Viswa,
Thank you for enlightening on US politics.World is round.Human psychology is almost the same

everywhere during elections. History gets repeated.Neither the politicians nor the citizens change.

JAYASALA 42