Futurology

Discussion in 'Education & Personal Growth' started by Gauri03, Aug 20, 2016.

  1. Gauri03

    Gauri03 Moderator Staff Member IL Hall of Fame

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    I hope that eventually, maybe not in the near future, but in the future future it will be a win for everyone. I know there is great concern about automation destroying low-skill jobs, but the present situation is not unprecedented. We went through this when we transitioned from an agricultural economy to an industrial economy, and again when the industrial economy gave way to the informational economy. What we've seen is that automation frees up human labor for creating employment sectors that have the capacity to absorb the vast majority of the displaced labor force. The transition is never painless, and this time around too, many low-skill individuals will face hardship in the short term, until they are able to re-tool and adapt to the new opportunities generated by an AI-based economy. Another point to note is that automation almost always leads to lowered costs via increased efficiencies, which in turn increase both supply and demand. It improves purchasing power. Think of a middle-class person from the 1900s versus one today. Standards of living have steadily gone up for everyone. Even if our wages don't go up, we will be able to afford more with what we have. After all, an iPhone manufactured by a robot could cost half or a quarter of what it costs today.

    While the market will likely find an equilibrium eventually, the role of governments should be to minimize the human cost by enacting policies, be it educational opportunities or a universal basic income, that allow people to adapt to the opportunities of a post-automated future.

    I found a nice little blog post explaining why robots won't make us all redundant -- Robot Economics - TCS Daily
     
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  2. Iravati

    Iravati Platinum IL'ite

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    I spent a week reading every entry in this compilation. Few quotes repeatedly feature in that compilation.

    David Mermin: Shut up and Calculate
    C.P. Snow: Two cultures
    Paul Feyeraband: Anything Goes

    I didn't know which article will provide me context and reference to all these oft-repeated citations. Then I came across Science Wars

    The article explains the genesis of fisticuffs between two factions

    (1) Scientists
    (2) Philosophers (rather post-modernists)

    The entry is worth a read to understand how science and philosophy locked horns in the 20th century. It will provide a lot of context when you switch to divorce of science and philosophy in 21st century.
     
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2017
  3. Gauri03

    Gauri03 Moderator Staff Member IL Hall of Fame

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    I wonder if it is a losing battle? The current problem of fake news pales in comparison to the threat posed by AI systems designed to write fake content — articles and reviews that could be indistinguishable from human writing. Take, for instance, these restaurant reviews from a new paper on the use of AI to create fake online reviews. Some of these were written by an AI. Can you tell which ones are real? Test yourself before you click on the link to see the answers. It is remarkable from a technological perspective but its social ramifications are alarming. Except for one, I couldn't tell the real the ones from the fake ones. They all seem real!

    1. Easily my favorite Italian restaurant. I love the taster menu, everything is amazing on it. I suggest the carpaccio and the asparagus. Sadly it has become more widely known and becoming difficult to get a reservation for prime times.

    2. My family and I are huge fans of this place. The staff is super nice and the food is great. The chicken is very good and the garlic sauce is perfect. Ice cream topped with fruit is delicious too. Highly recommended!

    3. I come here every year during Christmas and I absolutely love the pasta! Well worth the price!

    4. Excellent pizza, lasagna and some of the best scallops I've had. The dessert was also extensive and fantastic.

    5. The food here is freaking amazing, the portions are giant. The cheese bagel was cooked to perfection and well prepared, fresh & delicious! The service was fast. Our favorite spot for sure! We will be back!

    6. I have been a customer for about a year and a half and I have nothing but great things to say about this place. I always get the pizza, but the Italian beef was also good and I was impressed. The service was outstanding. The best service I have ever had. Highly recommended.

    Imagine not being able to trust anything we read online. It is an unsettling thought.
     
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2017
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  4. Viswamitra

    Viswamitra Finest Post Winner

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    @Gauri03,

    I reviewed each one of them carefully and I could figure out 5 and 6 are fake but I missed 2. I didn't see human expression in 5 & 6 but 2 appeared genuinely written by a human. It looks like if AI writing is perfected, we will find it hard to differentiate between human writing Vs machine writing. The Americans are generally very liberal in using the adjectives and I guess the AI System recognizes this incredible attitude of the Americans.

    If fake news could easily be adapted by AI systems, I assume there could be reasonably well-written lie-detecting algorithm in AI that could be developed and embedded in semantic search engines. It should function as a filter to eliminate the fake news generated. The logic for such a lie-detector could be enormously complex to include many aspects including date validation, origin of IP address, writing style, historic data search, source recognition, study of target audience and many more.

    In the information world, enough American voters trusted the fake news to elect the POTUS is fairly alarming. But I am more worried about AI systems learning what would get a clinical trial approved by FDA and prepare results that would be acceptable, Intraoperative nerve monitoring system estimating the position of the nerves based on prior data during a surgery, etc.



    These kids are the future and their belief system that AI and machine learning is only for the betterment of the humanity is encouraging.

    Viswa
     
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  5. kaniths

    kaniths IL Hall of Fame

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    Just a (silly) thought... :blush:

    Algorithm designers behind the AI systems have social and moral responsibilities, don't they? In the case of this restaurant review bot, more the positive reviews, more the customers and higher the gains for investers, sponsors and owners involved in the business. If to manipulate our opinions and decisions for competition, success, power and profits is their only agendas, Whose ethics should we question here? I pronounce the review bot AI not guilty! :lol:

    On a lighter note... Creditability was ensured in olden days with thumb impressions. Today the same technique is called biometrics! Not much difference, just digitalized! ;) Back to the basics is the key always! I had say trust peer to peer reviews or go word by mouth style, even better! :D
     
  6. Viswamitra

    Viswamitra Finest Post Winner

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    @kaniths,

    In my view, Bot developers would think developing artificial commentary about a restaurant will get more foot in the door and still the quality of the food would take care of growth of the restaurants. It is otherwise known as harmless action. Even the courts ask everyone to prove the financial or physical or emotional damage that happened to the individuals before accepting punitive damages. More there are quality standards and more they are regulatory procedures, people will find ways and means to bypass them to be more successful in the business. Ethics is an artificial line determined by the corporate world and constantly evolving. Only where there is a proof that it has harmed someone, there will be a penalty.

    In case of the US election, even an investigator is struggling even if the nexus between Trump campaign and Russians were established, under what category the fake news would fall under to create criminal liability or grounds for impeachment.

    Viswa
     
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  7. Iravati

    Iravati Platinum IL'ite

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    Don't reveal the answers. I have conjectures, thoughts and opinions on this impostor!
     
  8. Gauri03

    Gauri03 Moderator Staff Member IL Hall of Fame

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    merlin_133379810_0d7e404a-050d-4bf9-9d67-99fda91b652f-superJumbo.jpg
    Picture souce: Falcon Heavy, in a Roar of Thunder, Carries SpaceX’s Ambition Into Orbit

    They did it! SpaceX just put a Tesla Roadster in a long elliptical orbit around the Sun!

    At 3:45 ET today, SpaceX successfully launched the Falcon Heavy rocket from Launch Complex 39A at Kennedy Space Center in Florida ― the same launchpad that sent Apollo 11 to the moon. Not since Wernher von Braun's Saturn V, the behemoth that launched humans beyond low Earth orbit, has the world seen a rocket this powerful. The rocket's test payload is Elon Musk's personal Tesla Roadster. The Tesla has "Don't Panic" written on the dash as an homage to Douglas Adams and The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. Apparently the car also has a copy of the book in the glove compartment. How cool is that!

    The Falcon Heavy is the most powerful operational rocket in the world right now by a factor of two ―"with the ability to lift into orbit nearly 64 metric tons (141,000 lb)--a mass greater than a 737 jetliner loaded with passengers, crew, luggage and fuel."

    Falcon Heavy's first stage is composed of three Falcon 9 nine-engine cores whose 27 Merlin engines together generate more than 5 million pounds of thrust at liftoff, equal to approximately eighteen 747 aircraft. Only the Saturn V moon rocket, last flown in 1973, delivered more payload to orbit.

    Falcon Heavy was designed to carry humans into space and make humanity a multi-planetary civilization. The launch was jaw-dropping, the stuff of space documentaries. The synchronized separation and landing of the boosters was gorgeous and, frankly, sexy! : )

    Here's a simulation of the launch.




    Here's the actual launch. The test flight starts about an hour into the video.



    "... and the Falcons have landed!" The synchronized landing of the Falcon Heavy boosters. This gave me goosebumps!



    +1 to Mankind! (Thanks but no thanks Mr Trudeau!)
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2018
  9. sokanasanah

    sokanasanah IL Hall of Fame

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    Jeez. This is kinda pointless - there's no air in space!!! So a 737 jetliner cannot fly there. Planes need air to fly. Cuz fluid dynamics and whatnot. This is like soooo dumb. Why would this Tesla guy want to use a rocket to launch a plane? Into orbit? Learn some physics buddy! :fearscream::fearful::mad:
     
  10. Gauri03

    Gauri03 Moderator Staff Member IL Hall of Fame

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    Lol! Maybe you'd have preferred they used the old-fashioned number of elephants stacked on an aircraft carrier analogy to visualize mass.

    Personally I never understood the American penchant for describing the size and mass of things in terms of other 'things'. XYZ is as tall as five football fields stacked vertically. Mmkay. Now how do I imagine a football field standing vertically? :rolleyes:
     

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