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Chennai Real Estate scenario -2012.

Discussion in 'Housing' started by Shanvy, Feb 20, 2012.

  1. Shanvy

    Shanvy IL Hall of Fame

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    img116.jpg

    As i promised in the earlier post....:hide:
     
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  2. k11

    k11 Silver IL'ite

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    Anthony, Is that the furniture guy on NM road (opp Ampa) ?
    I did not know he was a builder.

    Most folks struggle to buy one, buying multiple like in a shopping cart. I bet this will tick of lot of people with the fuel increase and economic issues. - Bad Ad. Although Investors might like the idea of fully furnished homes.

    Lancor is one of the good builders, especially among the Chennai based ones. I like Vijayshanthi, Ceebros, Navins, Ceedeeyes. Some in the list might not gouge the customers on loading. Deals are done in white. Most of them are professional. This project cleanly mention carpet area.

    I might be biased as I own one of the units in a Lancor building. Plumbing and wiring are intelligently planned. No illegal units, all units carry approval. Floor plans are decent and lobbies designed wide.

    Although, I have not looked at their project (Central Park) in Sholinganallur, lot of folks say that is the best project in that area. It also seems to have a good price appreciation in resale and rental market.

    If I was a buyer I would consider paying 5-10% premium for a builder like Lancor. But not way more than that.

    But coming to this project, Courtyard at Nanganallur. Is there a market for 8.5K there?
    I am not aware of this area. Heard it was predominantly Brahmin area. Is this location better than Pallavaram.
    Olympia's project is at 5.5K there I think. Is Nanganallur RE prices 50% more than Pallavaram.
    Their smallest unit costs 1.25C for a 1350 sqft 2bhk unit with 930sqft carpet is definitely for upper middle class and above.
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2012
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  3. Shanvy

    Shanvy IL Hall of Fame

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    k11,

    i expected you here and you did not disappoint.. i already mentioned brand sells and in chennai it is ceebros,lancor,vijayashanthi,shanthi builders on the first tier, guru,navins,shreyas,chaitanya grn, in between and then come best homes,chozha, mettupakkam..and then jain, doshi and others.. i have seen these players in the market for years and there are some who have been here for decades but are area concentrated players..

    and coming to the area, knowing the area, this is close to the mount station as well as mrts..and also has good schools, hospitals and temples..(infact 10 years back it was called the temple city of chennai..) now you don't find water at 200ft..i know areas where you get water only at 400 ft..there are houses that buy water for 6 months..and more nri population or you could say that every other household almost has an nri offspring.incidientaly i think it was the times of india chennai edition that carried an article citing nanganallur is no more for the middle class...

    coming to the rates, i remember we discussed in the 2009 thread and 2010 the rates were 3800 to 4000 here with grn having more projects that were in the 5k range..and today most of the properties are being sold at 6000 and 6500+. with the proximity to velachery, omr and gst i think it has caught the eye of many. and also you find lot of college kids taking accomodation in the area as all buses ply the route..

    coming to the 8500k is absolutely horrifying to me..but the land rates are beyond premium. i remember my mother-in-law saying that a ground was sold at 250 in nanganallur in the 70's and they could not afford it..and even i know of a ground that was sold at 12lacs (not nanganallur but close) in 2006, which is incidentally at 90lacs today..just 6 years, and this is not the area where you don't find empty pockets..rents are like 15k for a 2bhk and can go upto 20/25k for 3bhk if everything is in place and is in a prime location..

    appreciation all over the city has been in pockets. i find urapakkam and guduvanchery have equally appreciated so has the pallavaram/chitlappakkam area..and at times i find it is more artificial escalation showing the new 6 lane roads or whatever will(?) exist at that place..when i hear of things like this i am reminded of a old tamil movie where a guy tries to sell a piece of land saying to the north the airport comes, to the west the railway station and to the east the harbour..and i see the same trend in the detailed ad or commercial programmes that are trying to sell plots in the local channles and are being aired by vijay/jaya/sun. trying to cash on the missing the bus syndrome and same goes for the clearance sale cashing on the buying in sale syndrome that has caught the people what will the common man do, satisfy his fear of hole in the pocket seeing the visible profit that he gets though he may/maynot be aware of the invisible marketing gimmick..

    will come back for more...
     
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  4. k11

    k11 Silver IL'ite

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    I am spending a lot of time on forums, mainly on IREF. You will find me here until Dec for sure.

    I am in a hunt for a RE investment for family member, low budget. She will not be an end user so location does not matter for living, only care about appreciation. 25-35L is desired, flexible. We are looking for something with a staggered payment, a five year township project or something, so that we can put money in slowly. I am not familiar with burbs. I went to college on GST road so I am familiar with GST. Apart from it I have never been beyond Velachery. I visited Tidel Park only once. North Chennai is also pretty alien to me. Although I like the North Town project.

    The only problem I see is liquidity. Can you exit quickly if you want to switch. Are there enough investors/buyers who can pick up if you are selling? Also would developers charge transfer fee. I met Hira guys couple of years ago. They were not friendly to transfers.

    So I am trying to get as much info as possible.
     
  5. k11

    k11 Silver IL'ite

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    On my end, I have done pretty good. I got out of stocks in early March. Made 10% for the year. I might have got out too early, but looking back it was best decision. I put money in bonds but for some reason my investments are not outperforming. Got only 2.5% return while the 10 year yield has gone from 2.4% to 1.45%. I should have made 15% at least but I think picked a wrong vehicle. If I bought the bonds directly I would have made a killing (60% at least).

    I planning to cash out in next year and use that in developing one of my commercial units in city. Its is more of a 2013-14 venture. I see the commercial rental markets are bad. Last year I saw one of the builders built a building a showroom. Now its complete and for sale. Not sure if some one bought it. A movie star also built a boutique hotel near it. Mine is a smaller project 3000-4000 sqft. Approvals are going to be a headache as the property is at a complex location, but on a main arterial road. There is a road widening also scheduled. I planning to meet some folks end of the year for this.

    By the way, if there are any architects or people dealing with CMDA plans on the board, PM me.
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2012
  6. k11

    k11 Silver IL'ite

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    Yes, 'Missing the Bus' syndrome has affected everyone.

    It is pretty surprising now that people are plonking crores into the outskirts on areas with 15ft roads and crummy areas that sometime have garbage dumps, STPs, no drainage, water problems, near slums, etc. That too from IT/NRI folks who do aspire for a upscale lifestyle.

    Gated communities are a different proposition as you are kind of shielded from the harsh life outside (power cuts, dogs on street, traffic, low social infrastructure, etc). There is certainly a premium associated with it.

    But areas outside of these, free standing plots have gone up so much in value, not sure if the buyer would inhabit these barren places and invest money again to build houses. All of this increase despite rising fuel prices, lack of public transportation, no basic facilities, no stores/restaurants/etc nearby. Developers are also taking advantage of the situation.

    I was calculating the returns on outskirts, found out that only a few areas had a good appreciation over the last five years despite of massive increase in 2009-11 post-recession period. When I say good, I mean something above inflation, like 12% per year.
     
  7. Shanvy

    Shanvy IL Hall of Fame

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    k11, i find there being buyers for the 20-40 segment most of the times in resale. recently i helped somebody here at il..and 25-35l was the budget and it was in urapakkam. many may argue why not medavakkam or pallikkaranai, where you may get a lot of projects in the 35-40lacs..i find them very far off, and another if it is for renting out people expect a certain standards..

    in case of urapakkam or guduvanchery, we still have the blue collar people, the proximity to raliway/gst also helps..add to it the new sez, at perungalathur and some good school closer from urapakkam..and this does not mean it comes cheap..

    I know north chennai. i have been following some of the projects by this Rajarathinam constructions, as one of my relatives has picked 2 from them and likes their product..and more so after seeing one of the projects in the movie mozhi..(i know iknow a movie should not make you decide on a builder..) just curious..nothing more..i have observed anna nagar growing beyond reach in 5 years...when i wanted to settle i had a few places, due to school for my kids..anna nagar was one..i could not find something closer to my then budget, and i ventured upto villivakkam..

    right now i find korattur housing boards being taken over by privated players..even grn has some projects there..cost, do check it out...

    we refuse to move out of our comfort zone, and think places are far..will not appreciate ..but you need to actually go to those places, visit a few times to really understand.

    this is one piece of information that left me shocking beyond my imagination.. here is the scenario..

    a piece of 2400 plot in a less than 12ft road, where a only one maruti alto can go, nothing more.. recently was there, it is not going to be a choicy place for anybody..infact one of the cousins said, if i were to buy no way in my life.(I personally would not like to invest there).so you can understand.. can you guess what was the rate..this is in padi..700mts..from the highroad..1.2Crores.. the deal was closed 4 months back...seriously you cannot say omr/ecr is the only places these high ridiculous deals are happening..
     
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  8. Shanvy

    Shanvy IL Hall of Fame

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    it definitely hits ..and you end up making some wrong decisions. Some decisions are surprising..
    Oh, did you see yesterday's hindu..a villa la greece style for ...Crores..mygod..we know that there issues that would take more time to be resolved..i understand investment, but cannot understand crores in a single flat, if it not your personal home..again perspective differs..Please do not be in the conclusion only it/nri aspire for upscale lifestyle..it is a wrong assumption..I can show you locally employed bank people investing upwards of 60lacs...

    do you really think so. very well maintained ones may..and have a very very high premium and running cost associated with it added to a wonderful association..

    k11,i know a personal incident. the family had invested 8k i think for a 2400 plot in the late 80's/early 90's..in rathnamangalam..very close say maybe 1km from those jones plots..they built a house at 800/sq.ft in 2008 because they were not able to pay the rent and the wish of having your own roof (I think most of us in tn are governed by this notion including yours truly)
    what happened..the family lost one of their members and the rest of them decided to sell the house..they sold the house 1000sq.ft 2bhk in 2400 sq.ft plot with nice garden for 24lacs..because of the very said barren spaces, lack of shops, transport and basic amenities. and another thing i could quote is i had been to kayarambedu, i think 18 months back, i see a few houses (big bungalow style) coming up amongst nothing else..absolutely no other house in a 2 acres area...it is one of the layouts that came in in the 1995. no houses yet..but today the rates are beyond reach..reason proximity to gst/omr ...i believe it is how you look at it..my fil argued that for a layout to develop, others will start building seeing one bungalow, and the the shops will come on its own..now after 18 months, i see few more houses, and few small grocery shops..so the thinking of each person differs. i know somebody who says he does not want a 2cr he has a house in the outskirts that costs him that much, but wants a 3 crore flat in the cbd. and another friend who has a good flat in the cbd, but is looking for a plot to construct a house in the very suburbs..i think the grass is greener on the other side is one view, and another is that your tastes/choices start differing along with the socio-economic and also family circumstances. and main factor i believe that triggers this choice is age and affordability and risk taking apetite as in case of any investment..

    I know a good friend of mine who bought a small duplex for 18 lacs 2007,in the suburbs when there was absolutely nothing in the vicnity other than that and it is 2kms into the main raod.. can you guess the rate today..the resale offer he gets is 55-60lacs..i am not going to calculate the returns i leave it to you..

    I also know a parent of my son's classmate, who sold a plot that they bought in guduvanchery(i think) for 6 lacs in 2000 for 60 lacs in 2010end.

    Again, i know all these examples could just be 1 off a case..but i am sure there are more..it is more about being at the right place at the right time.
     
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  9. k11

    k11 Silver IL'ite

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    I mean I find it shocking that people who are used to upscale lifestyle choosing crummy locations and investing lots of money for it. If a non-IT or blue collar person buys in a 15ft road I find it ok as he does not think about owning a big car in future. But nowadays even NRI/IT folks are investing big sums in such bad properties. We would not have thought of buying in such places even 10 years ago.

    I do agree on this. Also a human tendency.


    Also on your appreciation trends, I know we had a big increase till 2007 because of hyper-inflation. But after that I think it has been minimal on outskirts except in certain areas. Some did really well but there are many cases where returns have not been good. I do think, the appreciation in future will be minimal.

    Prices should have doubled in 6 years at 12% rate compounded. At 15% it should double in 5 years. With bank interest rates high, stamp duty at 9% bar is set high to realize returns - RE is not an easy investment vehicle.

    I am reffering to mostly on OMR side where prices did not go up as much. Sholinganallur was decent but not spectacular. Prices was 50L in 07, it is probably 60-70 now. Other areas like pallikarnai, areas between Thoraipakkam and Shols did not do really well. Velachery was above average.
    GST road were ok. Porur and nearby suburban areas was extremely good.

    Overall I am bullish on RE and bullish on Indian economy.
    But I do see that our Central Govt is trying its hardest to spoil the growth.
     
  10. Shanvy

    Shanvy IL Hall of Fame

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    K11,

    Recently I was vacationing abroad. we were in a group, and one person tells me i bought a flat in this place, 1000sq.ft 30 lacs and it is 2 years and it has appreciated well.. i was really curious (where else will i get information from??) and asked her how much it has appreciated..it is 35 lacs in the same place.. so the person was very happy and appreciative of that 5lacs and i personally have witnessed almost 50% appreciation in the flat a friend purchased in 2009 end..where in the friend purchased at 4000 and today it is selling at 6500..and this is the very so called outskirts according to you and please it is not omr, it is not gst or it is not ecr.

    Have you watched a auction, the price rises as per the demand and the players..so did omr..nobody was bothered about the infra, facilities, we thought we should be the ones who are in before others..each person thought he got a better deal and the end deal is a raw deal..

    I know a cousin who bought in a suburb in bombay a 1200sq.ft flat for 18 lacs..when the construction started in phase 1 i think. he moved in..slowly the other phases and other flats got booked and he has a neighbour who look down at him, that he bought for 18 lakhs and he bought the same flat at 75lacs.. they forget that he has bought the same property at 4 times lesser...the mentality of our people needs to change for lot of things, even real estate..

    let me tell you one of il friends brought a independent house in pallikkaranai for 68 lacs,1800sq.ft land and 2000sq.ft house..it was a stealer..now the adjacent house is being sold at 85..it has appreciated..

    the areas around the omr/ecr/gst belt has appreciated..only because people concentrate more on areas like velachery, perumbakkam, siruseri, and shoz, this is not realised..


    GST has equally appreciated..please go around scouting for land on the main road or 100m from the main road from trident towards mwc..you will see the trend.. seriously some deals happen hush hush..


    For the bearish or bullish i am reserving comments.. i wanted to say wait, watch and tread with caution yesterday night itself..this morning papers proves my intuition right..we are already downgraded.

    it can be bullish as long as we have nri funds coming in due to the rupee devaluation.. i believe even the central bank can only do so much..

    As per my husband, he predicted a dollar touching 58 this may last year and it did touch and he also told me that it will touch 60 before the end of the year..and i hope it does not happen..though it is great news for lot of nre's it is the countdown to the downfall.. (Dh is in treasury management)

    I for one believe that this election is going to be the hammer that strikes the pendulam either way..

    (disclaimer :these are my personal views and please please do your own study..)
     

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